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Swine Flu Vaccine – Or Lack Thereof
The good news is that the vaccine for Swine Flu, or H1N1, will start rolling off the shelves in mid-October. That’s exactly where the good news ends.
The bad news is that there will be about a third of the quantity that the authorities had expected, which will make for a rather severe shortage of the vaccine when it becomes available.
Federal authorities now expect about 45 million doses to be available for the US. There are more than 350 million people in the US, so that means about 13 percent of all US citizens will have access to the vaccine when it first rolls off the truck.
More vaccine will arrive in the weeks and months after the first shipment. However, anyone who received the first vaccine shot will need a booster shot if it is to be effective. Therefore, the next 45 million doses of vaccine will go to protect the same people who received the first shot. After that they can start giving to new people. That’s not exactly how it works, but it’s close enough for our purposes.
The CDC’s latest guidance is that the vaccine should only go to pregnant women, healthcare workers who interact directly with swine flu patients, children 6 months to 4 years old, and caregivers of infants less than 6 months old. That will be it for most of this fall and winter. After those people have been vaccinated, children from 4 to 24 years old together with other health workers are given the shot.
A long way after that comes the rest of us. The majority of us will not be vaccinated in 2009, and we probably won’t even get it in 2010.
The main point: don’t rely on vaccination as part of your planning process. If it’s available, that’s great, but all indications are that it won’t be.
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